Stat of the Week...Top 15 in percentage of starts won since 1952 (min. 120 wins): 1. Warren Spahn 53.9%... 2. Juan Marichal 52.1%... 3. Ron Guidry 51.7%... 4. Whitey Ford 51.2%... 5. Roy Halladay 51.0%... 6. Pedro Martinez 50.9%... 7. Johan Santana 50.8%... 8. Bob Gibson 50.8%... 9. Sandy Koufax 50.6%... 10. Mike Mussina 50.4%... 11. Jim Palmer 50.3%... 12. Roger Clemens 50.1%... 13. Randy Johnson 49.9%... 14. Andy Pettitte 49.9%... 15. Jim Maloney 49.6%...
Previous Articles

"But If You Put Guidry In The Hall...

Tuesday, June 2, 2009 , Posted by Gator Guy at 7:52 AM


...then don't you have to also induct [fill in the blank]?" I believe the name cited most frequently to fill in that blank is Dwight Gooden. It's true that the similarities between Gator and Doc are striking, so let's compare and contrast.

Any discussion of Dwight Gooden has to begin with the acknowledgment that he was the greatest pitching phenom in major league history. Only Feller comes close to Gooden's achievements before reaching the age of 21. He finished 2nd in Cy Young voting in his rookie year, shattering the record for most strikeouts per nine innings by more than two-thirds of a strikeout. He then had one of the greatest seasons ever in his sophomore year. He was Dr. K, and he was the biggest star in the game at the age of 20. There was talk that we might be witnessing the greatest pitcher in the history of the game. It didn't turn out that way.

The parallels between Guidry and Gooden are many. Both were absolute sensations in their first two full years; no pitcher has ever had a better two-year start than Guidry and Gooden. Each produced one of the greatest pitching seasons in history in his second year, winning the Cy Young Award unanimously. Neither again achieved the dominance he displayed in his second season, but each nonetheless proceeded to compile by far the highest winning percentage of any starting pitcher in his league over the next seven seasons. Each was a figurative runaway freight train down the stretch in pennant races in their first two full seasons. Each maintained a winning percentage over the first 200 decisions of his career approaching .700.

The similarities don't stop there.

A year-by-year approach I believe is a simple way to compare careers in more detail and depth than merely examining career totals. The following Guidry v. Gooden demonstration reveals striking similarities in the arcs of their respective careers.



















Again, the similarity in their careers is striking. There's not much to choose from in a comparison of their first four full seasons. And the statistical similarity continued for the balance of the respective productive careers. The following are Guidry's career totals and Gooden's totals through 1996 (the last season Gooden would pitch enough innings to qualify for the ERA title):






Almost identical, save for a meaningful, but not huge, edge for Guidry in the ERA+ number. Here's the difference, however. After Dwight's first four seasons he never really put together a season that clearly qualified him as one of the premier pitchers in his league. Despite putting up consistently good winning percentages for good Met teams, Gooden's ERAs and other statistical achievements were notably mediocre. Consider the following:


1. Gooden didn't lead the N.L. in a single major pitching category after his historic 1985 season. He didn't add a single point to his "Black Ink" total.

Guidry, by contrast, led the A.L. in major pitching categories numerous times after his great '78 season - ERA in 1979, WHIP in '81, complete games in '83, wins and winning percentage in '85, and fewest BB/IP in '86. Guidry added 15 Black Ink points after his '78 season - more than half his career total - and passed Gooden, 29 to 23.

2. After Gooden's first four seasons, he went five consecutive years in which he did not have a season with double-digit wins and an ERA+ greater than 102. During that stretch, his best ERA+ was 113 in 1989, but injuries limited Gooden to 9 wins and 118 IP. He won 19 and 18 games in '90 and '88, respectively, but had ERA+'s of only 102 and 98. Gooden would have only one more season in which he'd win more than 10 games and have an ERA+ greater than 102 - he had a 117 ERA+ in 1993 while struggling to a 12-15 record with a Mets team in decline.

Guidry, by contrast, added three more seasons over the latter half of his productive career in which he had both impressive win totals and an ERA+ significantly better than the average: '81, '83 and '85. He had two more 20 win seasons and two more seasons in which his ERA+ was at least 20% better than league average.

3. Gooden received only incidental consideration for the Cy Young Award after '85. Gooden finished 4th in '90, 5th in '87 and 7th in '86, and had only a .18 CY award vote share.

Guidry compiled a .87 CY award vote share after '78, finishing 2nd in '85, 3rd in '79, 5th in '83 and 7th in '81.

The simple fact is that Doc was never really a premier pitcher in the NL after his first three years. And as great as those three years were, three great years have never put anyone in the HOF. Guidry's first three years were also monumental, but he added three more years in '81, '83 and '85 when he was unquestionably one of the top pitchers in the AL, and was the lefthanded starter on the Sporting News annual all-star teams.

Throw in the big disparity in post-season performances and Guidry's edge over Gooden becomes decisive.

Quite simply, you can put Guidry in the Hall and leave Doc out, and no one could complain too much about Doc being done an injustice.

Currently have 1 comments:

  1. Thanks for the support regarding Blyleven. I couldn't help but want to pass along this post I did some time ago. Pretty basic...sure, but you get the point.

    http://www.hallofverygood.com/2007/06/louisiana-lightning-versus-sanford.html

    Enjoy!

Leave a Reply

Post a Comment