The Guidry Decade
Monday, March 15, 2010
, Posted by Gator Guy at 4:36 AM
I've noted before the fact that Ron Guidry is the only pitcher in baseball history to lead the major leagues in wins and lead his own league in ERA and SO over a ten-year period and yet be rejected by the Hall. He averaged nearly 17 wins per season in the decade between '77 and '86 and had a 3.23 ERA (121 ERA+). When apprised of Guidry's achievement, my fellow baseball fans have had remarkably similar reactions, initially expressing some surprise at Guidry's accomplishment but then arguing that Guidry's statistics during this period, while impressive, were pre-eminent during this period only because this decade happened to occur at an odd interregnum in baseball, when greats like Seaver, Palmer and Carlton had just passed their prime and before the rise of Clemens, Maddux, Johnson and Martinez. They suggest that Guidry's performance really wouldn't have been that exceptional in any other era in baseball.
I must admit that I was inclined to give some credence to this argument. I assumed the win total wouldn't be that impressive when compared to all the titans who pitched during the eras of four-man rotations that prevailed in baseball until the '80s. I believed it was probably true that averaging about 17 wins a season over a decade while posting an ERA+ of 120 or greater was not all that unusual during many other eras in modern baseball history, and so I decided to check the record book. It turns out I was wrong. Averaging nearly 17 wins a season over a decade while compiling an ERA 20% better than the park-adjusted ERAs of your contemporaries has always been an achievement only the greats have attained. It turns out that this level of excellence over a decade gives a pitcher an almost automatic entree into Cooperstown. By my count, there have been 27 pitchers who accomplished this since 1920. All but four have already been inducted into the Hall of Fame or are almost certain to be inducted upon eligibility. And it further turns out that Guidry's accomplishment is becoming exceedingly rare in the age of the five-man rotation and seven inning starts.
The last pitcher to average as many wins as Guidry did over a decade was Randy Johnson from '97 to '06. Maddux came very close during the same period but finished a win shy of equaling Guidry's 16.9 wins per season. Maddux averaged 16.9 or more wins per decade from '95 to '04 and for each of the preceding seven ten-year periods* (i.e., every ten-year period commencing between 1988 and 1994). Since Guidry, only five pitchers have averaged 16.9 wins or more per season over a ten-year period while compiling an ERA+ of 120 or better: Maddux, Johnson, Clemens, Glavine and Mussina. Only two pitchers currently pitching have a realistic chance at accomplishing the feat any time in the next four years - Halladay and Santana. Halladay needs to win 39 games in the next two seasons to do it. Santana can do it by winning 70 games over the next four years. Although each as a realistic chance, the odds are long. (For the most recent ten-year period - 2000 to 2009 - Andy Pettitte led all major league pitchers with 148 wins.)
Guidry's statistical accomplishments between '77 and '86 were relatively rare even in the day of the four-man rotation, at least in the American League. Just as only Clemens and Mussina matched Guidry's feat in the AL over the 25 years since Guidry did it, only three American League pitchers accomplished the feat in the 30 years before Guidry. Bob Lemon did it for each of the ten-year periods concluding in '55, '56 and '57, averaging 19.7 wins per season with a 122 ERA+ during his best ten-year stretch. Whitey Ford did it for each of the ten-year periods concluding in '63, '64 and '65, averaging 17.3 wins with a 136 ERA+ during his best ten-year stretch. And Jim Palmer did it for each of the ten-year periods ending in '77, '78, '79, '80, '81 and '82, averaging 19.2 wins and a 139 ERA+ from '70 to '79.
In the history of the American League since 1920, only ten pitchers have averaged 16.9 wins per season and a 120 ERA+ over a ten-year span: Grove, Ferrell, Feller, Newhouser, Lemon, Ford, Palmer, Guidry, Clemens and Mussina. Only four other pitchers have averaged 16.9 wins per season in the AL since 1920: Hunter, Morris, Lolich and Wynn. There have been only two ten-year periods in the American League in which as many as two pitchers have accomplished this: Grove and Ferrell from '28 to '37 and Grove and Ruffing from '31 to '40. Feller and Newhouser would have done it within the same ten-year period if Feller hadn't lose four years to military service. In other words, had Guidry's magnificent decade occurred at any other time in AL history since 1920 he would have been one of only three pitchers at most to accomplish this feat in that ten-year period.
There was only one brief era in modern baseball history - the late '60s to late '70s - when there were more than three pitchers in any ten-year period to average 16.9 wins per season while maintaining a 120 or better ERA+. There were five pitchers to accomplish the feat in the decade from '69 to '78: Jenkins, Perry, Palmer, Carlton and Seaver. There were four pitchers in each of the decade periods of '68 to '77 and '71 to '80, and it was the same four pitchers for each period: Perry, Palmer, Carlton and Seaver.
In other words, Guidry's statistical accomplishments from '77 to '86 would have placed him among the very top echelon of elite pitchers in any era, generally accompanied by only one or two other pitchers in averaging nearly 17 wins per season and a 120 ERA+.
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Besides Guidry, there are three other pitchers on this list who failed to make the Hall of Fame. Two of them, Wes Ferrell and Lon Warneke, had their peak years in the '30s. The other, Bucky Walters, had his peak years in the late '30s and during the war years. They had remarkably similar careers, each winning between 192 and 198 games and compiling ERA+s between 115 and 119. Each won between 170 and 175 games during their peak decade, meaning that for each pitcher his peak decade comprised substantially his entire productive career. Of the three, Walters was the only one to receive more than token support among HOF voters, twice topping 20% in the balloting in the mid-60s.
I generally agree with Bill's analysis (although I think he sells Ferrell a little short). I would make another point, however. While each of Walters, Ferrell and Warneke was among the leading winners in baseball during his peak decade, their ten-year win totals (175 for Ferrell and Warneke; 170 for Walters) were not particularly notable for the period. Certain of their contemporaries, as well as premier pitchers in succeeding decades, far exceeded their 10-year win totals, with Grove, Hubbell, Spahn, Marichal, Feller, Roberts, Lemon and Jenkins all averaging approximately 20 wins per season or more. Guidry's ten-year total, by contrast, ranks with the very best ten-year win totals during the era of the five-man rotation. Since Guidry's ten-year peak, only Maddux, Glavine and Johnson have eclipsed Guidry's tally by as much as one victory per season, and only Maddux's best 10-year stretch ('92 to '01) topped Guidry's total by two victories per season.
Guidry won almost as many games in a decade as did Ferrell, Warneke and Walters, despite pitching in an era where the five-man rotation and sharp decline in complete games have rendered the 17-win season the functional equivalent of the 20-win gold standard of prior eras. That fact alone would seem to distinguish Guidry from the three other pitchers who have failed to make the Hall despite a decade of averaging 17 wins per season and a 120 or better ERA+, and would seem to dictate that he join the 23 other pitchers who have accomplished this feat and are either already in the Hall or on a glide path to Cooperstown.
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Guidry's ERA+ during his peak decade is roughly equivalent to the peak-decade ERA+ of seven Hall of Fame pitchers on the list of those who averaged 16.9 wins or more and a 120 ERA+ over a ten-year stretch, and it is equal to or better than various Hall of Fame pitchers who didn't make the list. The following HOF pitchers on the list had an ERA+ under 130 during their best 10-year stretch: Bob Lemon (122), Don Drysdale (121), Ferguson Jenkins (123), Mike Mussina (129), Red Ruffing (124), Robin Roberts (123), Steve Carlton (127), Warren Spahn (128). The following HOF pitchers narrowly missed making the list and had an ERA+ during their peak decade roughly equivalent to or lower than Guidry's:
Jim Bunning, 164 wins, 124 ERA+
Don Sutton, 164 wins, 120 ERA+
Nolan Ryan, 160 wins, 116 ERA+
Early Wynn, 188 wins, 116 ERA+
Lefty Gomez, 160 wins, 127 ERA+
Waite Hoyt, 166 wins, 114 ERA+
Eppa Rixey, 166 wins, 119 ERA+
Herb Pennock, 163 wins, 116 ERA+
Catfish Hunter, 184 wins, 111 ERA+
Don Sutton, 164 wins, 120 ERA+
Nolan Ryan, 160 wins, 116 ERA+
Early Wynn, 188 wins, 116 ERA+
Lefty Gomez, 160 wins, 127 ERA+
Waite Hoyt, 166 wins, 114 ERA+
Eppa Rixey, 166 wins, 119 ERA+
Herb Pennock, 163 wins, 116 ERA+
Catfish Hunter, 184 wins, 111 ERA+
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Let me anticipate the reaction of many: "O.K., Guidry had a ten-year peak comparable to many Hall of Famers, perhaps even most, but he had no career to speak of outside of that ten-year peak, and had a shorter career than virtually all HOF pitchers other than Koufax and Dean." I would respond, simply, by asserting that (i) most HOF pitchers have very little to speak of in terms of HOF-worthy accomplishments outside of their peak decade, and (ii) Guidry's career was as long as, or virtually as long as, more than a dozen HOF pitchers.
Guidry pitched in 14 seasons and pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title in ten of those. Guidry's ten full seasons are as many or more than Koufax, Dean, Gomez, Lemon, Walsh, Chesbro, McGinnity, Sutter, Joss and Waddell. The following pitchers only had 11 full major league seasons: Hunter, Newhouser, Vance, Haines and Coveleski. Drysdale and Three-Finger Brown each pitched in 14 major league seasons, twelve of which were substantially full seasons. If Guidry's career was too short, the shortfall seems too insignificant a reason to exclude him from the Hall.
The list of HOF pitchers with far longer careers but virtually no HOF qualifications outside their peak decade is a much longer list. For every Spahn, Maddux or Carlton who truly had more than ten HOF worthy seasons there are two or three HOF pitchers whose accomplishments outside their ten-year peak did little more than pad their career statistics.
Let's begin by taking two very striking examples: Early Wynn and Don Sutton, each of whom had very long careers and joined the cherished 300 win club.
Wynn's peak decade was '50 to '59, during which he won 188 games and had a 116 ERA+. On either side of the that peak decade Wynn was 83-94 with a 92 ERA+ ('39 to '49) and 29-31 with a 105 ERA+ ('60 to '63). Outside of his peak decade, Wynn had two seasons where he won more than 13 games: 1943, when he went 18-12 with a 110 ERA+, and 1947, when he went 17-15 with a 103 ERA+. Neither season was the equal of his average season during his peak decade.
Let's begin by taking two very striking examples: Early Wynn and Don Sutton, each of whom had very long careers and joined the cherished 300 win club.
Wynn's peak decade was '50 to '59, during which he won 188 games and had a 116 ERA+. On either side of the that peak decade Wynn was 83-94 with a 92 ERA+ ('39 to '49) and 29-31 with a 105 ERA+ ('60 to '63). Outside of his peak decade, Wynn had two seasons where he won more than 13 games: 1943, when he went 18-12 with a 110 ERA+, and 1947, when he went 17-15 with a 103 ERA+. Neither season was the equal of his average season during his peak decade.
Sutton's peak decade was '71 to '80, in which he won 164 games with a 120 ERA+. On either side of that peak Sutton was 66-73 with a 95 ERA+ ('66 to '70) and 94-81 with a 102 ERA+. Like Wynn, Sutton didn't have a single season outside his decade peak where his W-L record and ERA approached his average season during his peak. Like Wynn, he didn't have a single season outside of his peak that, if replicated over a 10 or 12 season period, would have given him a credible argument for the HOF.
Carl Hubbell had a ten-year peak very similar to Gibson's where he was a consistently big winner with superlative ERAs. Outside that peak decade he didn't have a single season where he won more than 11 games.
The following HOF or presumptive HOF pitchers didn't have a single season outside their ten-year peak in which they won 15 games and had a 112 or better ERA+: Drysdale, Lemon, Newhouser, Marichal, Wynn, Ruffing, Roberts, Vance, Hubbell, Sutton, Gomez, Hunter, Feller, Coveleski, Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling. The following pitchers had exactly one such season outside their peak decade: Bunning, Jenkins, Palmer, Gibson, Ryan, Hoyt and Randy Johnson.The fact is that most HOF pitchers were truly great for a period of about ten years. Pitchers like Walter Johnson, Maddux, Spahn, Clemens and Seaver who had multiple outstanding seasons outside their peak decade are the exception, not the rule. It is clear that Ron Guidry had a peak decade that is comparable to the peak decades of many Hall of Famers - Bunning, Drysdale, Lemon, Wynn, Sutton, Gomez, Hunter, Jenkins, Ruffing and Roberts, among others. It is also clear that none of these pitchers did anything outside of their peak decade that materially added to their HOF qualifications.
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I would humbly submit that by any statistical measure Guidry's HOF qualifications are the equal of Bunning's, Dyrsdale's, Lemon's, Newhouser's, Vance's and Gomez's. To the extent they won more games in their career it is because they pitched in the era of four-man rotations. I would also submit that Guidry's HOF qualifications are the equal of Ruffing's, Hunter's, Sutton's and Niekro's. To the extent they won more games than Guidry they did so primarily because they had many more seasons where they were perhaps competent major league pitchers but not HOF quality pitchers.
There will no doubt be those who argue that many of these pitchers don't meet their particular idea of HOFers. Hunter, Bunning and Drysdale are examples of more recent HOF inductees who are frequently characterized as marginal inductees. Vance, Newhouser, Coveleski, Pennock, Hoyt and Faber are just a few examples of other pitchers who have been deemed by many to be marginal HOFers. I think it is fair to say that Guidry's HOF qualifications stack up pretty well against the qualifications of all the pitchers I've named in this paragraph. If one wants to argue nonetheless that Guidry doesn't belong in the Hall then they are in effect arguing for a much smaller Hall of Fame and for HOF standards that are radically more restrictive than the standards that have been observed for the last 75 years.
P.S. Here's a list of pitchers who just missed making the 17 wins/120 ERA+ list, either because they had too few wins, an ERA+ less than 120 or because some of their peak seasons occurred prior to 1920.
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* Win totals for any pitcher who pitched during strike-shortened '81, '94 and '95 seasons have been adjusted to reflect shortened seasons. For example, Maddux's win totals for any decade that includes both the '94 an '95 seasons was divided by 9.6 rather than 10 because approximately 40% of a season was lost between the premature end to the '94 season and the belated start of the '95 season.
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