Andy Pettitte: Hall of Famer, or just a good pitcher on great teams who was lucky to get great run support? If Andy retired today, I'd have to believe the BBWAA would come down decidedly in the latter camp. But another 15 win season in 2010 and some more October glory could change that.

I would have to admit that Andy is still a marginal HOF candidate, at least by the ostensible standards of recent HOF balloting. But if I had a vote, I'd have to ask myself: can I really vote to exclude a guy who has been such a large part of so much baseball history, and a crucial cog for so many world champions? And what if Pettitte tops the 250 win mark? He's a sure bet to top 240 wins and that's a formidable figure in this era. Who among the best active pitchers is a good bet to reach 240 wins? In an age where Cy Young award winners win 15 or 16 games, I'd venture that not even Sabathia and Halladay - the two most likely to hit 240 - are even-money bets.

The key to Andy's HOF chances is his reputation as a big-game pitcher, of course. But as staggering as his post-season numbers are, Pettitte critics are still loathe to acknowledge Andy's big-game bona fides. As best I can tell, they regard Pettitte as a post-season version of the regular-season Jack Morris: a guy who won a lot but only because he had great run support. This is a myth.

A closer look at Pettitte's post-season record reveals that Pettitte's excellent post-season record is more a function of his clutch pitching than his run support. It also reveals that Pettitte has been getting better in the post-season as he gets older. And if one looks at Pettitte's September record while ihs team is in contention for a playoff berth, they find a record remarkably similar to his outstanding post-season record. Let's take a closer look and see if you don't agree that Andy Pettitte should already have his ticket punched for Cooperstown.

The Post-Season

Here's the post-season record:

Click on the above stat line to see Pettitte's post-season game log. Pettitte's been getting even better in recent years, compiling an 8-2 record and 2.98 ERA in 96.2 innings over his last four post-seasons ('03, '05, '07 and '09). If not for two egregious bullpen collapses by the Astros bullpen in October 2005 Pettitte's post-season record since '03 would be 10-2.

Considering the level of competition a pitcher faces in the post-season, these are great numbers. The stat geeks and ERA+ worshippers, however, aren't impressed by Pettitte's post-season ERA. They assume that his 18-9 record must be a function of autumnal thunder from the Bronx Bombers' bats. Not so. The Yankees have provided Pettitte with an average of 4.575 runs/game. That's slightly above the post-season average of 4.19 runs/game since 1995, but well below the regular-season major league average of 4.81 and still further below the A.L. average of 4.98. A pythagorean calculation based on Pettitte's post-season run support and his runs allowed/game projects a record of 15-12 for a .556 winning percentage. Pettitte has significantly outperformed his pythagorean record, however, by performing exceptionally well in high-leverage situations in the post-season and by pitching his best in those games where pitcher performance is most critical - games in which his team provided between three and five runs of support. These two factors render Pettitte's 3.90 post-season ERA extremely misleading.

Pettitte's "clutch" figure in his 16 post-season starts since 2002 is 1.21 according to Fangraphs.com. This means that Pettitte's clutch pitching in these 16 post-season starts has been worth an incremental 1.21 victories. This translates to approximately 12 fewer earned runs if the runs allowed (and not allowed) by Pettitte in the post-season are weighted in proportion to their impact on the Yankees' win expectancy. This means Pettitte's Leveraged ERA is therefore 2.17 in the 99.2 post-season innings he's pitched since the 2002 post-season, approximately 33% better than his nominal 3.25 ERA. Fangraphs doesn't have the post-season clutch statistics prior to 2002, but if Pettitte's clutch performance prior to 2002 were neutral (i.e., a clutch figure of 0) his Leveraged ERA for his entire post-season career would be 3.47, approximately 11% better than his nominal 3.90 ERA.

Pettitte's clutch pitching within post-season games has been matched by his tendency to pitch his best in games where his performance is most critical in determining the outcome. In games in which the Yankees scored between 3 and 5 runs, Pettitte had a superlative 2.99 ERA and a record of 8-3. In games in which the Yankees scored between 2 and 4 runs Pettitte was even better: a 2.75 ERA and a record of 7-3. By contrast, since 1995 the record of home teams in League Championship Series when they score between 2 and 4 runs is 22-45. Pettitte's record in the post-season when receiving between 2 and 5 runs of support is a significant factor behind his 18-9 record and his ability to outperform his pythagorean projected record.

The World Series

Pettitte's World Series record has been a story of feast or famine. He's had two absolutely atrocious starts - game 1 of the '96 Series and game 6 of the '01 Series - in which he allowed a total of 13 earned runs in 4.1 innings. He's compiled a 2.70 ERA in his other 11 WS starts. Pettitte has actually experienced some pretty tough luck in the World Series, taking losses or no-decisions in four games in which he made quality starts and compiled a cumulative ERA of 2.02.

Perhaps most impressive about Pettitte's World Series record is the number of games in which he's turned in dominating performances. In the last 20 years there have been 24 World Series games in which a starting pitcher has pitched 7 or more innings and not allowed an earned run. Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling and Jack Morris each had one, for a combined total of four such games out of their cumulative 24 World Series starts. Greg Maddux and John Smoltz each turned the trick twice, for a combined total of 4 such games in their cumulative 13 World Series starts. Andy Pettitte has pitched four such games in his 13 World Series starts. Only four pitchers have had more than two 7 inning, 0 earned run World Series starts during the post-1920, live-ball era: Waite Hoyt and Bob Gibson, each of whom had three, and Whitey Ford and Andy Pettitte, each of whom had four. That's some pretty select company - only Hall of Famers need apply.

Pennant Races

Pettitte's September record when competing in a tight race for a division title or post-season berth is similarly exceptional. He's 26-9 in 51 starts with a 3.69 ERA (approx. a 125 ERA+). He's won four or more September starts in tight races three times: he was 5-1 for the Yankees in his rookie year of '95, 4-1 for the Yankees in '03, and 4-0 with a 1.86 ERA for the Astros in '05 as he and Roy Oswalt led Houston's charge into the World Series.

Pettitte's September record in title races is very similar to Seaver's and Palmer's:







Not much to choose from between Andy Pettitte and these two first-ballot Hall of Famers when it came to pennant races. Pettitte wasn't a Palmer or Seaver from April to August, but in the two months of the baseball season that dominate the history books Andy Pettitte was the equal or better of many of the greatest pitchers in the history of the game. Not that Pettitte's regular season record is anything to sneeze at; it compares quite well with the careers of many recent HOF inductees, such as Hunter, Drysdale, Jenkins and Bunning, as well as pitchers like Jack Morris and Bert Blyleven who are within striking range of induction. An argument for Pettitte's elevation to the Hall is not an exercise in incrementally loosening the HOF criteria by setting the bar at the level of the most dubious previous inductee, unless one takes the untenable position that none of Hunter, Drysdale, Bunning, Jenkins, Haines, Pennock, Hoyt, Gomez, Sutter, Coveleski, Lyons, Bender and Chesbro really belong in the Hall. If this is the position of those who would oppose Pettitte's induction into the Hall, then the debate is not about whether to lower HOF standards but whether HOF standards should be radically raised.

Pettitte's argument for the Hall is the same as that for so many HOF inductees: he has remained for many years among the first rank of his contemporaries if not the top handful, he contributed significantly to great teams, and he distinguished himself in the September and October games that matter the most.

One last data point to consider. Pettitte will likely approach Morris's career win total, if not pass it. He will have a significantly better winning percentage, a significantly superior ERA+, and his pennant race and post-season records will be not only superior to Morris's but vastly deeper as well. If, as appears likely, Morris breaks the 50% mark in HOF balloting within the next five years, then Andy Pettitte deserves more than the 75% necessary to gain entry into Cooperstown.