If you had to choose one pitcher to start a critical, late September game in a tight division race, who would you choose? Sabathia? Halladay? Santana? Carpenter?

I know who I would choose, and you know who I'd choose, too, because his picture is to the right. I'd choose Roy Oswalt, the Astros ace, hands down. Year after year Roy has put up Guidry-like numbers in September with the Astros in contention for a division title or wild-card spot. He's as close to infallible in a battle for the post-season as any pitcher of his generation.

Thanks to the three division, wild-card format, the Astros have been in contention for a post-season berth in every year of Oswalt's career other than 2007 and 2009. Oswalt has made 40 September starts in the seven tight races in which he's participated and his record is 28-7 with a 2.49 ERA in 267.1 innings pitched. However, two of his losses came in late September 2002 after the Astros had been eliminated (the only two starts of his 40 September starts that occurred after the Astros had either clinched or been eliminated). Take away those starts and Oswalt is 28-5 with a 2.39 ERA in 38 September starts while the Astros were still in contention.

And Roy's been getting better as he goes along. In his last five post-season races ('03, '04, '05, '06 and '08) he is 24-3 with a 2.33 ERA. In his last two - '06 and '08 - he's 10-1 with a 1.64 ERA. Four times Roy has won five games in September in the heat of races for the post-season, a feat matched only by Ron Guidry since 1954.

Over his last 30 September starts in tight races, Oswalt has won 24 games. As I said, Guidry-esque.

Throw in his 4-0 post-season record and it should be pretty obvious why Roy is my go-to guy.

There is no doubt that Roy is a late starter and fast closer; his August and September career statistics are vastly superior to his career statistics for the first four months of the season. But Roy's spectacular numbers in the heat of post-season races are more than just a function of his fast finishes. As I mentioned, the Astros were out of contention in September in only two of Roy's seasons - '07 and '09 - during which Roy made seven starts, going 0-2 with a 4.73 ERA in 40 innings. Throw in the last two starts of 2002 (after the Astros had been eliminated) and Roy's career record in September when the Astros are not contending is 0-4 in nine starts with a 4.76 ERA in 51 innings. That's right: 28-5 when it meant the most, but 0-4 when it meant little or nothing.

It's pretty plain that Roy likes the big stakes, thrives on pressure, and wants the ball in the big games. There's a term for guys like that. They're called "big game pitchers," and they are just about the most precious commodity in major league baseball.