Pedro in '99, Grove in '31, Gibson in '68, Guidry in '78...
Friday, May 22, 2009
, Posted by Gator Guy at 10:06 AM
...McLain in '68, Koufax in '65 (or '66, or '63), Gooden in '84. These are some of the greatest seasons pitchers have ever had. Let's examine various measures of pitching dominance and compare Guidry's '78 season to many of the other greatest seasons in baseball history. A statistical analysis confirms that Guidry's '78 season is among the greatest ever. When one considers that this performance occurred during one of the most legendary pennant races in baseball history and fueled the greatest comeback in American League history, it is not unreasonable to suggest that Guidry's magnificent season is the greatest ever.
The Record: 25-3. It's the highest winning percentage for a 20-win season in baseball history.
It's one of five seasons in which a 20 game winner lost only three games (Roe in '51, Cone in '88, Clemens in '01 and Lee in '08).
It's one of six seasons in which a pitcher was 22 or more games over .500 (Grove was 27 over in '31, McLain 25 over in '68, Dean 23 over '34, Grove 23 over in '30, Vance 22 over in '24).
Since 1954 (the earliest year for which the data is available) only four 20 game winners have won a higher percentage of their starts in a season (Martinez in '99, Clemens in '86, Welch in '90 and McLain in '68).
The ERA. We'll look at ERA+, which normalizes for league performance and park factors.
Guidry's 208 ERA+ was the third highest in modern history (i.e., post-1920) at the time, behind only Gibson's 258 in '68 and Grove's 219 in '31. Only Martinez, Clemens and Grove have ever posted a higher ERA+ in the American League. Oddly, Guidry retains the distinction of being the only A.L. pitcher to make as many as 35 starts in his 200+ season (in the N.L., Gooden started 35 games in '85 and Luque started 37 in '23).
Only nine pitchers have had a 200 or greater ERA+ since 1920. Because the standard deviation in the distribution of ERAs widens in times of both very low and very high offensive production, we've seen a proliferation of these kinds of seasons since 1990 (Martinez has topped 200 five times, Clemens three times, Maddux twice and Kevin Brown once). When Guidry accomplished it, however, it was only the third time it had been done in the A.L. since 1920, and only the fifth time in the major leagues since 1920 (Luque in '23, Grove in '31, Pierce in '55 and Gibson in '68).
In terms of simple ERA, only Pedro Martinez has matched Guidry's ERA in the A.L. since '78 (Martinez posted a 1.742 in 2000 compared to Guidry's 1.743 in '78). Guidry's 1.74 remains the 12th lowest since 1920 for a full season (Nolan Ryan compiled a 1.69 ERA in the strike-shortened '81 season).
Opposition OPS+. Opposition OPS+, like ERA+, is normalized for the league average and park factors. As such, it is a better measure of pitching dominance than WH/IP or H/IP, each of which can vary widely across eras depending on the general level of offense during a particular era.
Data for Opp. OPS+ is only available as far back as 1954. Between 1954 and 1978 only one American League pitcher had held opposing batters to an OPS+ of less than 53 - Joe Horlen of the White Sox in 1964 who had an Opp. OPS+ of 49.*
Guidry held opposing batters to an OPS+ of 50 in 1978. Throw out Horlen's performance and only Bob Gibson in his historic 1968 season posted a lower Opp. OPS+ - 47. Here are the ten lowest Opp. OPS+ posted between 1954 and 1978:
1. Gibson ('68), 47
2. Horlen ('64), 49
3. Guidry ('78), 50
4. Marichal ('66) and Sutton ('72), 51
6. Koufax ('65), 52
7. Score ('56), Aquirre ('62), Chance ('64), 53
10. Koufax ('63), 54
As of 1993 Guidry's 1978 OPS+ remained behind only Gibson's and Horlen's marks, with Clemens in '86 and Appier in '93 each joining Guidry by posting an OPS+ of 50. In the National League, Dwight Gooden posted a 52 OPS+ in 1985 to crack the top 10.
Since 1993 there has been a profusion of very low Opp. OPS+ marks, with Martinez, R. Johnson, Maddux, Santana and Clemens combining to post 15 different seasons with OPS+ of 50 or less, with each posting at least one season with an OPS+ better than Gibson's old record of 47. The record is now an extraordinary 18, posted by Martinez in 2000.
The 40 year period between 1954 and 1993 saw many extraordinary pitchers and pitching performances - Koufax, Marichal, Gibson, Seaver, Carlton, Guidry, Gooden, Palmer, Clemens and others. It is worth noting that Guidry's Opp. OPS+ of 50 in '78 was better than any posted by the foregoing pitchers other than Gibson in '68. One should be careful about ranking seasons on the basis of small differences in a single statistical category, but Guidry's OPS+ establishes at a minimum that his dominance of major league batters was on a par with Koufax in his prime, Gooden in his extraordinary '85 season and Gibson in '68.
______________________
* This performance is somewhat suspect, however, because of evidence that the White Sox manager, Eddie Stanky, tampered with the baseballs at the Sox's home games by storing them overnight in a very cold, damp room in Comiskey Park, and employed groundskeeping strategems to deaden batted balls (i.e., long infield grass, very damp and soft infield turf). Judging by the White Sox's pitching staff's performance in '64, Stanky's strategies were wildly successful - the Sox's staff posted an extraordinary team Opp. OPS+ at home of 68, approximately the same Opp. OPS+ recorded by Jim Palmer in his Cy Young year of 1975.
It's one of five seasons in which a 20 game winner lost only three games (Roe in '51, Cone in '88, Clemens in '01 and Lee in '08).
It's one of six seasons in which a pitcher was 22 or more games over .500 (Grove was 27 over in '31, McLain 25 over in '68, Dean 23 over '34, Grove 23 over in '30, Vance 22 over in '24).
Since 1954 (the earliest year for which the data is available) only four 20 game winners have won a higher percentage of their starts in a season (Martinez in '99, Clemens in '86, Welch in '90 and McLain in '68).
The ERA. We'll look at ERA+, which normalizes for league performance and park factors.
Guidry's 208 ERA+ was the third highest in modern history (i.e., post-1920) at the time, behind only Gibson's 258 in '68 and Grove's 219 in '31. Only Martinez, Clemens and Grove have ever posted a higher ERA+ in the American League. Oddly, Guidry retains the distinction of being the only A.L. pitcher to make as many as 35 starts in his 200+ season (in the N.L., Gooden started 35 games in '85 and Luque started 37 in '23).
Only nine pitchers have had a 200 or greater ERA+ since 1920. Because the standard deviation in the distribution of ERAs widens in times of both very low and very high offensive production, we've seen a proliferation of these kinds of seasons since 1990 (Martinez has topped 200 five times, Clemens three times, Maddux twice and Kevin Brown once). When Guidry accomplished it, however, it was only the third time it had been done in the A.L. since 1920, and only the fifth time in the major leagues since 1920 (Luque in '23, Grove in '31, Pierce in '55 and Gibson in '68).
In terms of simple ERA, only Pedro Martinez has matched Guidry's ERA in the A.L. since '78 (Martinez posted a 1.742 in 2000 compared to Guidry's 1.743 in '78). Guidry's 1.74 remains the 12th lowest since 1920 for a full season (Nolan Ryan compiled a 1.69 ERA in the strike-shortened '81 season).
Opposition OPS+. Opposition OPS+, like ERA+, is normalized for the league average and park factors. As such, it is a better measure of pitching dominance than WH/IP or H/IP, each of which can vary widely across eras depending on the general level of offense during a particular era.
Data for Opp. OPS+ is only available as far back as 1954. Between 1954 and 1978 only one American League pitcher had held opposing batters to an OPS+ of less than 53 - Joe Horlen of the White Sox in 1964 who had an Opp. OPS+ of 49.*
Guidry held opposing batters to an OPS+ of 50 in 1978. Throw out Horlen's performance and only Bob Gibson in his historic 1968 season posted a lower Opp. OPS+ - 47. Here are the ten lowest Opp. OPS+ posted between 1954 and 1978:
1. Gibson ('68), 47
2. Horlen ('64), 49
3. Guidry ('78), 50
4. Marichal ('66) and Sutton ('72), 51
6. Koufax ('65), 52
7. Score ('56), Aquirre ('62), Chance ('64), 53
10. Koufax ('63), 54
As of 1993 Guidry's 1978 OPS+ remained behind only Gibson's and Horlen's marks, with Clemens in '86 and Appier in '93 each joining Guidry by posting an OPS+ of 50. In the National League, Dwight Gooden posted a 52 OPS+ in 1985 to crack the top 10.
Since 1993 there has been a profusion of very low Opp. OPS+ marks, with Martinez, R. Johnson, Maddux, Santana and Clemens combining to post 15 different seasons with OPS+ of 50 or less, with each posting at least one season with an OPS+ better than Gibson's old record of 47. The record is now an extraordinary 18, posted by Martinez in 2000.
The 40 year period between 1954 and 1993 saw many extraordinary pitchers and pitching performances - Koufax, Marichal, Gibson, Seaver, Carlton, Guidry, Gooden, Palmer, Clemens and others. It is worth noting that Guidry's Opp. OPS+ of 50 in '78 was better than any posted by the foregoing pitchers other than Gibson in '68. One should be careful about ranking seasons on the basis of small differences in a single statistical category, but Guidry's OPS+ establishes at a minimum that his dominance of major league batters was on a par with Koufax in his prime, Gooden in his extraordinary '85 season and Gibson in '68.
______________________
* This performance is somewhat suspect, however, because of evidence that the White Sox manager, Eddie Stanky, tampered with the baseballs at the Sox's home games by storing them overnight in a very cold, damp room in Comiskey Park, and employed groundskeeping strategems to deaden batted balls (i.e., long infield grass, very damp and soft infield turf). Judging by the White Sox's pitching staff's performance in '64, Stanky's strategies were wildly successful - the Sox's staff posted an extraordinary team Opp. OPS+ at home of 68, approximately the same Opp. OPS+ recorded by Jim Palmer in his Cy Young year of 1975.
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