I suggested in this post that Ron Guidry may be the fourth greatest lefthander in the modern (i.e., post-1920) history of the American League, behind only Grove, Ford and Gomez. The more I look at it, the clearer the case becomes. The only other lefthander who might conceivably crack the top four is Randy Johnson, whose AL statistics are remarkably close to Guidry's. Let's look at the Guidry/Johnson comparison, and rank the top 10 southpaws in modern AL history.

In ten seasons with the Mariners and two with the Yankees Johnson compiled a 164-93 record, .638 winning percentage, and a 3.60 ERA (a 122 ERA+). He spent his first four seasons with the Mariners learning his craft and struggling to assert control and mastery over his outrageous stuff, a high '90s fastball and wickedly biting slider. He blossomed in 1993 and by 1995 was clearly the best pitcher in the AL, posting an 18-2 record in the strike-shortened season and winning the Cy Young Award (taking 26 of 28 first place votes). He missed almost the entire 1996 season with arm troubles but rebounded in 1997 with a 20-4 record and 2.28 ERA. Only Roger Clemens' triple crown season prevented Johnson from winning a second Cy Young Award. Johnson's impending free-agency and negotiations with the Mariners seemingly distracted Johnson in 1998 and he struggled to a 9-10 with Seattle before being traded to the D'backs and completely dominating the NL over the last two months of the season. He returned to the AL in 2005 at the age of 41 and spent two seasons with the Yankees, going 34-19 with very mediocre ERAs.

Johnson's AL record is almost identical to Guidry's - six fewer wins than Guidry and two more losses - for a .638 winning percentage that ranks behind only Ford, Grove, Guidry, Gomez and Pettitte since the inception of the AL in 1901. His dominance of the AL for four full seasons between '93 and '97 (a five year stretch that includes Johnson's very abbreviated season in '96) closely mirrors Guidry's domination of the AL for the three period between '77 and '79: Johnson was 75-20 (.789 win%) with a 162 ERA+; Guidry was 59-18 (.766 win%) with a 161 ERA+. Johnson won one Cy Young Award and had two second place finishes and one third, as compared to Guidry's first, third and seventh place finishes between '77 and '79.

Johnson's period of dominance in the AL was slightly longer than Guidry's, and that's a plus for Randy. But Randy's AL career was rather shallow aside from those four seasons, and none of his other AL seasons placed him among the AL's premier pitchers. Johnson played nine full seasons in the AL ('89, '96 and '98 were all partial seasons due to either trades or injury) and the four seasons I've mentioned were the only ones in which he received Cy Young consideration. Guidry had six seasons over a nine-year stretch in which he received CY consideration and his career in the AL is accordingly a little deeper than Johnson's.

What really tilts the decision in favor of Guidry are the post-season and pennant race performances. Johnson participated in three tight divisional races in the AL (with Seattle in '95 and '97 and the Yanks in '05) and was outstanding in all three, going a combined 12-0 in 15 starts with a 2.04 ERA, but his 5-0 September record in '95 was the only one in which his impact on the race approached Guidry's '77, '78 and '85 seasons, in which Guidry led two spectacular Yankees comebacks and one aborted comeback. In '97 Johnson made only three September starts in the Mariner's division title push. Although his victory over the Red Sox on the 2nd to last day of the 2005 season clinched the division title and a playoff spot for the Yankees, his 4 victories in six starts were less significant than Aaron Small's five wins in five starts, which included four straight wins in the first 20 days of September while Johnson was logging two no-decisions in three starts. It was Small's four straight wins while the Yanks overcame a four game deficit in early/mid September that keyed the Yanks' comeback.

Guidry's biggest edge is in the October performances. Johnson won his first post-season start in '95 and picked up another win in relief to clinch Seattle's series win over the Yankees in the ALDS. After that he made six starts in AL post-season competition and went 0-4 with a 5.35 ERA. He pitched well in a relief stint for the Yanks in the last game of the 2005 ALDS, but his failures in his six starts contributed significantly to four series losses by the Mariners and Yankees.

Altogether Johnson was 14-4 in 22 starts in AL pennant races and post-seasons, posting a 2.80 ERA in 157.1 innings. As I've noted, Guidry was an astounding 31-6 in 40 starts in pennant races and the post-season with a 2.74 ERA. Guidry's outstanding 3-1 record and 1.69 ERA in the World Series further cement his edge.

Johnson's amazing NL record vaults him to the top of the ranks of major league lefthanders, behind only Grove in my estimation. His .655 winning percentage in the NL equals Koufax's, and his amazing 158 ERA+ in the NL is probably enough to make him the greatest NL lefthander of all-time, a nose ahead of Sandy. Johnson is plainly the superior pitcher in any comparison of Johnson's career vs. Guidry's, but based purely on their AL records Guidry narrowly wins and places fourth on my list of modern era (i.e., post-1920) AL lefties.

Santana obviously had the potential to move ahead of Guidry among AL lefthanders, and he still might if he ever returns to the AL, but his 93-44 record in the AL and only four full seasons as a starter don't provide enough data. Newhouser might have challenged Guidry's standing, but the fact that two of his three dominant years occurred during the war years hurts his case. Plank and Waddell were great in the pre-1920 era, the best of their time, but it's virtually impossible to make valid comparisons with post-1920 pitchers because of the vastly different nature of the game in the early part of the century.

My top ten modern era AL lefties are, in order, Grove, Ford, Gomez (by a nose over Guidry), Guidry, Santana, Pennock, Pettitte, Newhouser, Kaat and Lopat. Jimmy Key, Billy Pierce and Tommy John narrowly miss the cut. Mark Buehrle and C.C. Sabathia can enter into the discussion with three or four more good years.

It somehow strikes my as very odd that the fourth (or even the fifth or sixth) greatest leftie in modern AL history could be rejected by the Hall of Fame. Veterans Committee, are you listening?