I know, it's a bold statement. If you're a big-league pitcher, there is not a more coveted title or reputation. It is the central argument for Curt Schilling's case for the Hall of Fame. It is no small part of Jack Morris's case for the Hall. It is a perfectly appropriate factor to consider in measuring the qualifications of a pitcher for the Hall.

I fear however that the sportswriters who vote for the Hall of Fame have overlooked Guidry's record as a big game pitcher, and have forgotten that big games take place not only in October but in September as well, when pennants and division championships are won and lost. And it turns out that success in October is not always joined with success in the heat of pennant races. There are pitchers with great post-season accomplishments who stumbled in the heat of pennant races, and others who consistently elevated their performance in pennant races but stumbled in October. And then there are pitchers like Ron Guidry, who were great in both months and seemed to rise to the occasion whenever the stakes were highest.

Ron Guidry participated in five pennant races with the Yankees between 1977 and 1985 where a spot in the post-season hung in the balance (there was nothing at stake for the Yankees in September in the strike interrupted '81 season because they already had a playoff spot locked up by virtue of leading the division when the strike occurred in mid-June)*. I've defined a "pennant race" as any season in which (i) a team was within five games of first place (or a wild-card spot) at some point in September prior to mathematical elimination, and/or (ii) were leading the division (or wild card race) at some point in September but with a lead of five games or less, and (iii) the pitcher at issue made at least one start when the race was within 5 games.

As any baseball fan can tell you, these September games are big when your team is in the race and time is running short. Sometimes they can even feel as big or bigger than post-season games. Guidry's record during these five pennant races was quite simply astounding. Only one other pitcher during the post-WW II era can arguably claim equivalence. This consistent and amazing success in tight pennant races is perhaps the most compelling argument for Guidry's inclusion in the Hall, relatively brief career notwithstanding. Let's look at the record.

Ron Guidry made 30 starts in September during these pennant races. He won 26 of them.

Let me repeat that: Ron Guidry won 26 of 30 September starts in the five pennant races in which he participated. That's not 26 of 30 DECISIONS (although Guidry was 26-4 in those 30 starts), and I don't mean that the YANKEES won 26 of the 30 games Guidry started. I mean that Ron Guidry was the winning pitcher in 26 of the 30 starts he made in September in the midst of tight pennant races.

Let's put that in some perspective. Only two pitchers in the last 50 plus years have even approached 26 wins in 30 starts during the course of a regular season: Denny McClain in 1968 and Bob Welch in 1990. McClain had a stretch of 26 wins in 32 starts (and 31 in 38) during his historic 31 win season in 1968. Welch had a stretch of 26 wins over the the last 31 starts of his historic 27 win season for the A's in 1990. In other words, take a pitcher on his way to a dream season of historic success, in which he'll win more games in a season than anyone has in decades, put a hard hitting team on its way to a World Series championship behind him, and you may get something close to 26 wins in 30 starts.

Let's put it another way. Koufax never came close in any comparable stretch of consecutive starts, either in a single season or across seasons. Gibson's best streak in his incredible '68 season: 19 in 24. Pedro's best: 21 wins in 26 starts during his 23-4 season in 1999. Guidry won 23 of 30 starts during the hottest stretch of his great 1978 season. Clemens had a stretch of 21 games in 1985 before experiencing his 5th loss or no-decision. Ford won 16 of 20 starts in 1961. Gooden's longest stretch without more than 4 non-wins in his 24-4 season of 1985 was 18 starts.

None of this is to say that the September Guidry was better than Koufax or Gibson or these other great pitchers. Rather, it is to illustrate the sheer improbability of anyone winning 26 of 30 starts under any set of circumstances. In a game where a fatefully placed pebble can turn the course of a World Series, as it did in 1960, events outside the control of any pitcher can serve to frustrate the efforts of even the greatest. And yet in 30 starts across five Septembers even chance could rarely thwart Ron Guidry.

We'll look at Guidry's glorious Septembers in the next post, and compare his record in the crucible of September pennant races to the records of the other great pitchers of the last 50 years. I hope that the Veterans Committee of the Hall of Fame will agree that Guidry's pennant race indomitability puts to rest any question of his qualifications for the Hall.

Here is the game log of Gator's 30 September starts in the years the Yankees were contending for the A.L. East title:


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* Guidry also participated in the '88 race in the A.L. East, making the last five starts of his career, going 1-1 with a 5.18 ERA. The analyses to follow will focus on September performance in pennant races during which the pitchers were arguably in their prime, and will exclude past-their-prime Septembers unless their performance was exceptional. So, for example, Randy Johnson's September 2007 with Arizona and Tom Seaver's September 1986 with Boston are not reflected in their September statistics.