Andy Pettitte: Hall of Famer, or just a good pitcher on great teams who was lucky to get great run support? If Andy retired today, I'd have to believe the BBWAA would come down decidedly in the latter camp. But another 15 win season in 2010 and some more October glory could change that.

I would have to admit that Andy is still a marginal HOF candidate, at least by the ostensible standards of recent HOF balloting. But if I had a vote, I'd have to ask myself: can I really vote to exclude a guy who has been such a large part of so much baseball history, and a crucial cog for so many world champions? And what if Pettitte tops the 250 win mark? He's a sure bet to top 240 wins and that's a formidable figure in this era. Who among the best active pitchers is a good bet to reach 240 wins? In an age where Cy Young award winners win 15 or 16 games, I'd venture that not even Sabathia and Halladay - the two most likely to hit 240 - are even-money bets.

The key to Andy's HOF chances is his reputation as a big-game pitcher, of course. But as staggering as his post-season numbers are, Pettitte critics are still loathe to acknowledge Andy's big-game bona fides. As best I can tell, they regard Pettitte as a post-season version of the regular-season Jack Morris: a guy who won a lot but only because he had great run support. This is a myth.

A closer look at Pettitte's post-season record reveals that Pettitte's excellent post-season record is more a function of his clutch pitching than his run support. It also reveals that Pettitte has been getting better in the post-season as he gets older. And if one looks at Pettitte's September record while ihs team is in contention for a playoff berth, they find a record remarkably similar to his outstanding post-season record. Let's take a closer look and see if you don't agree that Andy Pettitte should already have his ticket punched for Cooperstown.

The Post-Season

Here's the post-season record:

Click on the above stat line to see Pettitte's post-season game log. Pettitte's been getting even better in recent years, compiling an 8-2 record and 2.98 ERA in 96.2 innings over his last four post-seasons ('03, '05, '07 and '09). If not for two egregious bullpen collapses by the Astros bullpen in October 2005 Pettitte's post-season record since '03 would be 10-2.

Considering the level of competition a pitcher faces in the post-season, these are great numbers. The stat geeks and ERA+ worshippers, however, aren't impressed by Pettitte's post-season ERA. They assume that his 18-9 record must be a function of autumnal thunder from the Bronx Bombers' bats. Not so. The Yankees have provided Pettitte with an average of 4.575 runs/game. That's slightly above the post-season average of 4.19 runs/game since 1995, but well below the regular-season major league average of 4.81 and still further below the A.L. average of 4.98. A pythagorean calculation based on Pettitte's post-season run support and his runs allowed/game projects a record of 15-12 for a .556 winning percentage. Pettitte has significantly outperformed his pythagorean record, however, by performing exceptionally well in high-leverage situations in the post-season and by pitching his best in those games where pitcher performance is most critical - games in which his team provided between three and five runs of support. These two factors render Pettitte's 3.90 post-season ERA extremely misleading.

Pettitte's "clutch" figure in his 16 post-season starts since 2002 is 1.21 according to Fangraphs.com. This means that Pettitte's clutch pitching in these 16 post-season starts has been worth an incremental 1.21 victories. This translates to approximately 12 fewer earned runs if the runs allowed (and not allowed) by Pettitte in the post-season are weighted in proportion to their impact on the Yankees' win expectancy. This means Pettitte's Leveraged ERA is therefore 2.17 in the 99.2 post-season innings he's pitched since the 2002 post-season, approximately 33% better than his nominal 3.25 ERA. Fangraphs doesn't have the post-season clutch statistics prior to 2002, but if Pettitte's clutch performance prior to 2002 were neutral (i.e., a clutch figure of 0) his Leveraged ERA for his entire post-season career would be 3.47, approximately 11% better than his nominal 3.90 ERA.

Pettitte's clutch pitching within post-season games has been matched by his tendency to pitch his best in games where his performance is most critical in determining the outcome. In games in which the Yankees scored between 3 and 5 runs, Pettitte had a superlative 2.99 ERA and a record of 8-3. In games in which the Yankees scored between 2 and 4 runs Pettitte was even better: a 2.75 ERA and a record of 7-3. By contrast, since 1995 the record of home teams in League Championship Series when they score between 2 and 4 runs is 22-45. Pettitte's record in the post-season when receiving between 2 and 5 runs of support is a significant factor behind his 18-9 record and his ability to outperform his pythagorean projected record.

The World Series

Pettitte's World Series record has been a story of feast or famine. He's had two absolutely atrocious starts - game 1 of the '96 Series and game 6 of the '01 Series - in which he allowed a total of 13 earned runs in 4.1 innings. He's compiled a 2.70 ERA in his other 11 WS starts. Pettitte has actually experienced some pretty tough luck in the World Series, taking losses or no-decisions in four games in which he made quality starts and compiled a cumulative ERA of 2.02.

Perhaps most impressive about Pettitte's World Series record is the number of games in which he's turned in dominating performances. In the last 20 years there have been 24 World Series games in which a starting pitcher has pitched 7 or more innings and not allowed an earned run. Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling and Jack Morris each had one, for a combined total of four such games out of their cumulative 24 World Series starts. Greg Maddux and John Smoltz each turned the trick twice, for a combined total of 4 such games in their cumulative 13 World Series starts. Andy Pettitte has pitched four such games in his 13 World Series starts. Only four pitchers have had more than two 7 inning, 0 earned run World Series starts during the post-1920, live-ball era: Waite Hoyt and Bob Gibson, each of whom had three, and Whitey Ford and Andy Pettitte, each of whom had four. That's some pretty select company - only Hall of Famers need apply.

Pennant Races

Pettitte's September record when competing in a tight race for a division title or post-season berth is similarly exceptional. He's 26-9 in 51 starts with a 3.69 ERA (approx. a 125 ERA+). He's won four or more September starts in tight races three times: he was 5-1 for the Yankees in his rookie year of '95, 4-1 for the Yankees in '03, and 4-0 with a 1.86 ERA for the Astros in '05 as he and Roy Oswalt led Houston's charge into the World Series.

Pettitte's September record in title races is very similar to Seaver's and Palmer's:







Not much to choose from between Andy Pettitte and these two first-ballot Hall of Famers when it came to pennant races. Pettitte wasn't a Palmer or Seaver from April to August, but in the two months of the baseball season that dominate the history books Andy Pettitte was the equal or better of many of the greatest pitchers in the history of the game. Not that Pettitte's regular season record is anything to sneeze at; it compares quite well with the careers of many recent HOF inductees, such as Hunter, Drysdale, Jenkins and Bunning, as well as pitchers like Jack Morris and Bert Blyleven who are within striking range of induction. An argument for Pettitte's elevation to the Hall is not an exercise in incrementally loosening the HOF criteria by setting the bar at the level of the most dubious previous inductee, unless one takes the untenable position that none of Hunter, Drysdale, Bunning, Jenkins, Haines, Pennock, Hoyt, Gomez, Sutter, Coveleski, Lyons, Bender and Chesbro really belong in the Hall. If this is the position of those who would oppose Pettitte's induction into the Hall, then the debate is not about whether to lower HOF standards but whether HOF standards should be radically raised.

Pettitte's argument for the Hall is the same as that for so many HOF inductees: he has remained for many years among the first rank of his contemporaries if not the top handful, he contributed significantly to great teams, and he distinguished himself in the September and October games that matter the most.

One last data point to consider. Pettitte will likely approach Morris's career win total, if not pass it. He will have a significantly better winning percentage, a significantly superior ERA+, and his pennant race and post-season records will be not only superior to Morris's but vastly deeper as well. If, as appears likely, Morris breaks the 50% mark in HOF balloting within the next five years, then Andy Pettitte deserves more than the 75% necessary to gain entry into Cooperstown.

Allie Pierce Reynolds was the unquestioned ace of teams that won six World Series. He is not in the Hall of Fame. This has always struck me as extremely odd. Bizarre, even. If the ace starting pitcher on the team that won five consecutive World Series isn't a Hall of Famer then I'm missing something. But Superchief missed by just one vote in the December 2008 balloting by the pre-1943 Veterans Committee, garnering 8 of the 9 votes required for induction. That's good news for Reynolds, and it might be good news for Ron Guidry, too.

Yes, Reynolds played on great teams. Yes, he pitched to Yogi Berra for his entire Yankee career. Yes, the centerfielders patrolling Yankee Stadium's vast center-left expanse were Joe Dimaggio and then Mickey Mantle. But consider the following: Reynolds was 7-2 in 15 World Series appearances, nine of which were starts. His ERA was 2.79, which equates to an ERA+ of approximately 140.

He faced the Dodgers in four of the six World Series in which he played, pitching against them in 11 of his 15 WS appearances. Each of those Dodgers teams led the N.L. in scoring. The '49, '52 and '53 Dodgers teams featured Snider, Robinson, Reese and Campanella, each a Hall of Famer, and a near-miss Hall of Famer in Gil Hodges. The Dodgers of that era won six NL pennants in the decade between '47 and '56 and are rightly considered one of the greatest NL teams of all time. Reynolds went 5-1 with a 2.77 ERA against The Boys of Summer.

Only one of the Yanks' pennants was won handily during their streak of five straight world championships; the 1953 team led the league by ten or more games for most of September. The '49 to '52 teams each prevailed in very tight races, generally besting Indians and Red Sox teams that were themselves stocked with all-stars and Hall of Famers. Reynolds pitched brilliantly down the stretch in those pennant races, winning four September games each of those years. The Yankees played 157 games in September in their six world championship years during Reynolds' career, a number almost exactly equivalent to one full season, and Reynolds won 22 games in those Septembers.

Reynolds lost the openers to the '51 and '52 World Series and each time followed with a complete game victory in Game 4 to even the Series, saving the Yankees from falling into an all but insurmountable deficit and sparking Yankee comebacks on their way to another world championship.

Quite simply, Allie Reynolds was the greatest big-game pitcher of his era. As great as those Yankee teams were, it was Reynolds and his rotation mates, Vic Raschi and Eddie Lopat, who were the key to the Yanks' success in the five World Series between '49 and '53. Whether it was the World Series or the heat of a September pennant race, Superchief was at his best, and without him the Yankees' historic world championship tally of the late '40s and early '50s would have been fewer by two and perhaps more.

Reynolds may have won only 182 regular season games in his career, but I'm willing to bet that the biggest winners and Hall of Famers of his era - Spahn, Wynn, Roberts, Lemon and Feller - would gladly trade a huge chunk of their career win totals for just a few of Superchief's World Series rings. And I'm willing to bet that the multitude of Hall of Famers on the Dodgers, Giants, Indians and Red Sox teams who competed against Superchief would agree that he is more than worthy of induction into the sacred Hall.

Reynolds' success in recent Veterans Committee balloting may be good news for Guidry because their careers are so remarkably similar. They had similar career lengths, with Reynolds pitching 100 more innings than Guidry. Each periodically pitched out of the bullpen. Each had a huge impact on numerous tight pennant races. Each was the ace of teams that won multiple world championships. Guidry's teams didn't have quite the level of success of Reynolds' Yankee teams, but on the other hand Guidry compiled a slightly superior regular season record in terms of ERA+, winning percentage and number of league leading performances.

If Reynolds is inducted it will plainly be because of his outstanding pennant race and post-season performances, particularly his role in leading the Yankees' stretch drives in the years '49 to '52. If these factors carry Superchief into the Hall then they should militate for Guidry's induction as well, because even Superchief must take a backseat to Ron Guidry when it comes to dominating pennant race performances. Reynolds' record in pennant races is notable for its consistency; like Guidry, Allie had five outstanding September performances in the midst of white hot pennant races. But Guidry's record exceeds Reynolds' in two respects: Guidry never stumbled in a pennant race, whereas even Superchief had a tough finish in '48 while the Yanks were chasing the Indians; and Reynolds' Septembers, while superlative, were never as dominating as Guidry's epic performances in '77 and '78.

The similarities don't end with the numbers. Both Reynolds and Guidry were quiet, stolid leaders, respected by their teammates for combining an unflinching competitive fire with an unflappable demeanor. Each let their play on the field do the talking. Neither liked talking about himself. As the Associated Press noted in its article on the subject of Reynolds' passing in 1994:

The late Dale Mitchell, who played with Cleveland, once said Reynolds might not have made the Hall because he refused to promote himself. "He's not that kind of guy," Mitchell said. "But I'll tell you one thing: In Yankee Stadium in September with that fastball, there wasn't anybody ever lived who was any tougher. With those shadows, we were like ducks in a shooting gallery."

Both Reynolds and Guidry exemplified the team-first ethic, the value of which can't be measured by statistics. Like Guidry, Reynolds graciously accomodated the spot-relief role periodically assigned to him, acceding to manager Stengel's strategy for the good of the team. When asked about his failure to make the Hall, Reynolds  expressed his preference for winning over personal accolades.

I'm kind of indifferent now about whether I make the Hall of Fame," he said. "If it happens, it happens. I'm pretty much laid back on that. They've got to have some kind of rules. I knew that was going to happen with all the relief work I did for the Yankees. That really was a career-shortener. But to me, that was important. Teamwork was more important than some kind of honor."

As was the case with Guidry, pitching from the bullpen when the situation demanded it probably cost Reynolds more than one 20-win season. Superchief averaged more than 10 relief appearances per season with the Yankees, as a consequence never making more than 31 starts in a season. Stengel's strategy was a huge success for the Yankees, less so for Reynolds personally.

It appears as if the Veterans Committee may be prepared to finally look beyond the sterile statistics and recognize Allie Reynolds' contribution to six World Series winners. And if they do, they should take a close look at Ron Guidry, too, whose career win total doesn't capture his role as the ace pitcher for the most successful American League teams of his era. As the plaque in Yankee Stadium's Monument Park puts it, Guidry was "a respected leader of the pitching staff for three American League pennants and two world championships. A true Yankee."

The plaque really says it all. If it's the only plaque he ever gets, there's no doubt Guidry will be just fine with that. But he deserves another plaque, one that will hang in Cooperstown.

I've discussed the great pennant race performances of pitchers over the last 50 years. It's time to look at some of the legendary pennant race performances from long ago. These performances help to explain why certain pitchers with conspicuously thin career qualifications for the Hall were nonetheless inducted into the Hall of Fame. They also help to explain why some pitchers who were never seriously considered for the Hall are nonetheless revered by the oldtimers. Some names will be very familiar, others less so. But each of these pitchers put together performances in the heat of pennant races that lifted their teams to glory.

Dizzy Dean, 1934

Let's start with Dizzy Dean. Everybody knows about Dizzy's 30-win season for the Gashouse Gang in '34.They might not recall however that it was Dizzy's performance in August and September of '34 that made him a national figure and a baseball legend, as Dizzy led the Cards comeback to catch the defending World Champion Giants.

After briefly leading the NL in late May the Cards had fallen behind the Giants and remained between 5 and 7 games behind the defending World Champs for most of July and August. The Cards kept pace with the Giants throughout August and early September but failed to make up much ground. They were still 4.5 games back on September 16th when Dizzy squared off againt the Giants. Dean and the Cards beat the Giants 5-3 to close to 3.5 games back with 14 left to play. With time running out, the Cards decided to hitch their fortunes to Dean's arm and began pitching him virtually every other day in an effort to catch the Giants. Dean pitched a three-hit shutout against the Dodgers on Sept. 21, pitched in relief in both ends of a doubleheader two days later on the 23rd, pitched a complete game victory on Sept. 25, pitched a complete-game shutout on two days rest on the 28th, and then pitched a complete-game shutout on one day's rest on the 30th. All in all, Dizzy pitched in six of the Cards' last 11 games as they caught and passed the Giants.

From August 1 to the end of the season, Dizzy went 12-3 with 3 saves, posting an incredible 1.48 ERA in 155.1 innings and winning his last nine starts in a row. Dean's fast finish not only brought a pennant to the Gashouse Gang, it permitted him to win 30 games - the last time a National League pitcher would ever accomplish that feat.

Dean topped off his dream season by winning two of his three starts against the Tigers in the World Series, including the clincher in game seven. There is no question that Dean's superhuman achievements during the Cards dash to the NL pennant in '34 form the bulk of the Dean legend and was a significant part of his elevation to the Hall. Without that performance, and the 30 win season that resulted from the Cards decision to pitch Dean every other day down the stretch, it's likely Dizzy wouldn't be in the Hall.

Jesse Haines, 1928

The Cardinals were perennial contenders in the mid and late-20's, and Jesse Haines was their ace. After spending most of 1926 as the Cards' No. 3 starter, Haines came to the fore in the legendary World Series matchup with the Yankees of the Murderers Row era, pitching a complete-game shutout in game 3 and winning the decisive 7th game with a 6.2 inning, two run effort against Ruth, Gehrig and Co.

Haines was the unquestioned ace of the Cards staff in 1927, going 24-10 as the Cards narrowly missed winning another NL pennant. Haines pitched brilliantly in August, helping the Cards keep pace with the Pirates and Giants in a torrid three-way race, but stumbled in September and the Cards came up short. Haines redeemed himself in 1928, however, putting together a pennant race performance that ranks among the best in baseball history.

The Cards were just half a game in front on August 24th when Haines took the mound against the Phillies. Haines' shutout against the Phils triggered a five-game winning streak that extended the Cards' lead to 5.5 games by August 28th. But the lead slowly dwindled through early and mid-September and remained between one and two games for much of the last two weeks of the season. As the Cards were trying to hang on, Jesse Haines was the Cards' personal life preserver. Beginning with his win against the Phils on August 24th, Haines reeled off eight consecutive complete game victories, compiling a 1.38 ERA over that stretch. Three of Haines' last four starts came with the Cards up by one game or less. Haines didn't allow as much as three earned runs in any of those eight starts until the last one, when he beat the Boston Braves to keep the Cards up by one with three games to go.

The Cards held on to win the NL pennant but were swept by the Murderers Row Yankees in the World Series. Haines started and lost game 3 of the Series, after two errors on one play by Cards catcher Jimmie Wilson led to three Yankees runs that broke a 3-3 tie in the sixth. Even with this loss, however, Haines' numbers against the great Yankee lineups in the '26 and '28 World Series are impressive: in four appearances against Murderers Row in those two World Series, Haines won two of his three starts and put up a 1.99 ERA. Haines added a complete-game four-hitter against the A's in the 1930 World Series, and finished his World Series career with a 3-1 record and 1.67 ERA, World Series stats virtually identical to Ron Guidry's.

Jesse Haines 210 career wins and .571 winning percentage didn't much impress the BBWAA during the '50s and early '60s, but Jesse finally made the Hall in 1970 because enough Veterans Committee members remembered Jesse Haines' central role on those Cardinals teams that fought Murderers Row to a draw in the '26 and '28 World Series.

Big Bill Lee, 1938

Big Bill's remarkable stretch drive in the great NL pennant race of 1938 has been largely overshadowed by Gabby Hartnett's legendary "homer in the gloamin'" that gave the Cubs a crucial victory over the Pirates just as umpires were preparing to call the game due to darkness. Hartnett's homer, however, wouldn't even be a footnote to history but for Lee's astounding September performance because the Cubs would have already been eliminated.

The Pirates entered September with a fairly comfortable lead over the Cubs, Giants and Reds, who appeared to be in a tight race for 2nd place. The Pirates faltered in early September, however, and by September 14 the four teams were separated by just 3.5 games. Lee began September by shutting out the Pirates. He then pitched shutouts against the Reds and Giants, helping to move the Cubs into 2nd place just 2.5 games behind the Pirates. Lee pitched a fourth consecutive shutout on Sept. 22nd against the Phillies, but the Cubs were still 3.5 games back with 13 to play. Lee's scoreless streak was finally snapped by the Cardinals on Sept. 26, but Lee pitched his fifth straight complete-game victory. The Pirates arrived in Chicago the next day  with a 1.5 game lead to begin a three game series with the 2nd place Cubs. The stage was set for one of the most remarkable finishes in NL history.

A diminished but still formidable Dizzy Dean was tapped by the Cubs to pitch the first game against the Bucs. Dean's arm was no longer what it was, damaged as a result of his attempt to compensate by overthrowing after a line-drive in the '37 All-Star game broke a toe on his landing foot and restricted his ability to follow through. Dizzy was only a once-a-week pitcher for the Cubs in '38, but when he pitched he was spectacular, taking a 6-1 record and 1.91 ERA to the mound to face the Pirates. Dean pitched brilliantly against the Pirates and took a 2-0 lead into the bottom of the ninth. Dizzy had runners on 2nd and 3rd with two outs in the ninth when Hartnett, the Cubs manager, waved in Bill Lee. Lee promptly through a wild pitch that allowed the runner to score from third, but with the tie run just 90 feet away Lee struck out Pirate catcher Al Todd to end the game. The Cubs were just half a game behind the Bucs.

The next day the Cubs and Pirates were tied 3-3 when the Pirates scored two runs in the 8th inning off Cub pitcher Larry French to take a 5-3 lead. Hartnett brought in Big Bill with no one out in the 8th to stem the rally and Lee managed to finish the inning without permitting further damage. It was Lee's third appearance in three days. The Cubs responded with two runs in the bottom of the 8th to tie the game 5-5, and Lee, who was slated to start the next day's game, was replaced by Charlie Root to pitch the top of the 9th. Root held the Pirates scoreless in the 9th, and the rest is history. Hartnett's bottom of the 9th shot in the gathering darkness at Wrigley Field remains one of the most famous home runs in baseball history.

The Cubs were now in first place for the first time since early June. Lee took the mound to make his fourth appearance in four days; his last start had been just three days prior. The Cubs, perhaps conscious of the fact that Lee was running on fumes, scored three runs in the bottom of the first to take a quick lead. By the end of the fifth inning the Cubs had an 8-1 lead, having pounded the Pirates pitching trio of Bauers, Brandt and Blanton. The Cubs won the game 10-1 to finish the series with the Bucs with a 1.5 game lead. Lee recorded his sixth complete game victory in September. For the month, Lee was 6-0 with two saves and a microscopic 0.64 ERA. He had started four games against the other contenders in the NL race and won them all, with wins over the Pirates bookending his month. The Cubs held on to win the pennant, maintaining their lead over the Pirates for the last three games of the season.

Lee started the first and fourth games of the World Series for the Cubs against the Yankee juggernaut manned by a roster of Hall of Famers. Lee pitched well but to no avail, surrendering just three earned runs in 11 innings against the likes of Gehrig, Dimaggio, Dickey, Gordon and Henrich, but losing both games. Ruffing and Gomez were too much for the Cubs batters, and the Yankees swept the Series.

When one considers Lee's iron-man performance against the Pirates in late September and the fact that three of his four September shutouts came against other contenders, Big Bill's pennant race performance for the Cubs in '38 might be the most spectacular in National League history.