Ten Innings To Cooperstown: The Jack Morris Story
Jack Morris sealed his reputation as big game pitcher on October 19, 1991. He pitched a 10 inning shutout that day, winning game 7 of the World Series by a score of 1-0 to make the Minnesota Twins the champions of baseball. It is without question one of the great pitching performances in World Series history. Jack Morris was a gamer, there's no doubt about it.
Jack's Game 7 classic wasn't his only shining moment in October either. He had a 7-4 post-season record in 13 starts, with a 3.80 ERA (even more impressive, he won 7 of his first 8 decisions before a rocky post-season in '92) . As is the case with many great post-season pitchers, he was even better in the World Series, going 4-2 with a 2.96 ERA in seven starts for Detroit, Minnesota and Toronto. He was 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA in his first two World Series (in '84 and '91), before going 0-2 for the Blue Jays in the '92 WS. Guidry was better in October, but Morris was close, particularly if you give him extra-credit for his 10-inning Game 7 shutout (and I think we should).
Morris went 13-13 in 30 September starts in those four races with a 3.34 ERA. He had a particulary difficult time in games against the other contenders in those races, losing twice in the last nine games to eventual division winner Milwaukee in 1981 and losing critical September starts to Baltimore in '83 and Toronto in '87. He was stellar in '92 with Toronto, going 4-1 in 7 September starts with a 3.40 ERA. Morris made two September starts for Toronto in 1993, losing his only decision.
His record over six September pennant races with Detroit and Toronto (Minnesota waltzed to the division title in 1991) was 17-15 in 39 starts, with a 3.44 ERA in 290.2 innings. By my scorecard, Jack Morris was great in five starts in two World Series, bad in two starts in a third World Series, and thoroughly mediocre in 39 starts down the stretch in six pennant races. Based on this, I'd argue that Jack Morris's reputation as a big-game pitcher rests disproportionately on one ten inning game in October.Of course the issue of Jack Morris' big-game bona fides is critical to his Hall of Fame candidacy because his regular season credentials are generally considered short of Hall worthy. I'm agnostic on the issue of Morris' worthiness for the Hall, but I passionately believe that if Morris is now consistently polling above 40% in HOF ballots, then Ron Guidry should be inducted forthwith.
We compared Blyleven's, Morris' and Guidry's prime years in this post. Conveniently, both Morris and Guidry had a prime period of nine years, after which each experienced a precipitous decline. As demonstrated below, although each had approximately the same number of wins, Guidry had a significantly better ERA+ and a significantly greater winning percentage. Both Guidry and Morris pitched for fine teams in the late '70s and '80s, but Guidry's winning percentage over this nine year stretch was an astounding 26.5% better than the Yankees' winning percentage during the same period, while Morris outperformed his Tiger clubs by 13.9%.
But Morris fans would argue, quite fairly, that Jack put together a fine pair of seasons in '91 and '92, while Guidry was essentially finished after his nine-year run. In fairness to Jack, let's take his '91 and '92 seasons and substitute them for his two weakest seasons during his nine-year prime ('80 and '82, in each of which Morris was only one game over .500 with an ERA+ of approximately 100). This provides a comparison of Morris' best nine years in his 18 year career against Guidry's prime of nine consecutive years. Here's the comparison:
Morris narrows but doesn't erase his deficits in ERA, ERA+ and winning percentage. He averages approximately one more win per year, but averages approximately 3.5 starts more per year.
You don't have to take my word that Guidry '77 to '85 seasons were better than Morris' top nine; the Cy Young award voters clearly agreed. Morris received Cy Young award votes in seven of those nine seasons totaling a 0.75 career share. Guidry received Cy Young award votes in six of his nine prime seasons totaling a 1.91 career share.
If Guidry's '77 to '85 seasons were better than Morris' top nine, then Morris' huge edge in the Hall of Fame balloting must relate to the other nine years of his 18 year career - in which he was 90-100 with a 4.55 ERA. Or, more likely, Morris' burgeoning support in the HOF balloting rests in large measure on ten innings he pitched in October 1991.
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