The apparent disregard for Guidry by the sportswriters who cast the ballots for the Hall of Fame is not wholly inexplicable. There are reasons why HOF voters may have missed what seems so obvious. Some of the reasons are specific to Guidry and some are not. Let's take a look at them.

1. The impact of the 5-man rotation and the rise of the bullpens. These factors have significantly reduced innings, wins, starts, strikeouts, complete games and shutouts for pitchers. Obviously a Hall of Fame voter should allow for these factors when considering the record of any pitcher in the last 30 years. Only recently has the HOF had to consider those who pitched during and after the shift to 5-man rotations that took place in the '80's. In many ways Ron Guidry has been a test case, the Yankee's early adoption of the 5-man rotation in '76/'77 and Guidry's relatively short career combining to make him one of the first to be considered by the Hall from the era of expanded rotations and increased bullpen utilization.

The leading pitchers today generally start 32 to 34 games per year, as compared to 38 to 40 in the '70s. The last pitcher to make 38 starts in a season was knuckleballer Charlie Hough in 1987. There were 117 38-start seasons in the '70s. No pitcher has had 34 decisions in a season since Joaquin Andujar in 1984. There were 57 such seasons in the '70s. In practice the 5-man rotation has reduced starts for front-of-the-rotation pitchers by about six per season. For elite pitchers that means roughly 3 wins per season. I think the impact of this is profound. Mike Mussina will present an interesting test case in five years. If I'm not mistaken Mussina will be a marginal HOF candidate, but does anyone believe an eight-time 20 game winner wouldn't be a first-ballot HOFer? That's how many 20-win seasons Mussina might have had in a 4-man rotation (with six 18+ win seasons and two more 17 win seasons he almost certainly would have had six 20 win seasons).

Guidry had three 20 win seasons and might have had four more with the benefit of five to six additional starts each year.

In 1977 Guidry didn't join the Yankees' starting rotation until May 17th (the Yanks' 33rd game of the season), making only one spot start on April 29th. As a result he made only 25 starts, winning 15. Had Guidry been in the starting rotation the whole year he likely would have won 18 or 19 games - the equivalent of a 21 or 22 win season in a four-man rotation.

In 1979 Guidry won 17 of 30 starts. He went two weeks between starts in early May when he was moved to the bullpen and replaced an injured Goose Gossage as the Yanks' finisher, picking up an additional win to total 18 for the season (or the equivalent of approximately 21 wins in a 4-man rotation).

In 1980 Guidry won 16 of 29 starts. He went a month between starts from mid-August to mid-September after he volunteered to go to the bullpen to make room for Gaylord Perry in the Yanks' rotation. This was thorougly mystifying move by the Yanks which, like the acquisition of the aging Perry, was likely motivated in part by George Steinbrenner's rising panic as the Orioles were shaving the Yankees' division lead in August. Guidry went 1-1 in his month-long foray into the bullpen to finish with a record of 17-10. He returned to the rotation in mid-September, winning four consecutive starts to finish the season. He likely would have won 19 games but for missing approximately five starts while in the bullpen.

In 1981 labor strife wiped out one-third of the season, and Guidry won 11 of 21 starts. The Yanks' used Guidry sparingly after early September, having already been awarded a post-season spot as a result of leading the division when the strike occurred (two of Guidry's starts in September were abbreviated 2 and 3 inning tune-ups). After play resume in early August Guidry enjoyed his most dominating stretch since the great '78 season, going 6-2 with a 1.74 ERA in August and September. But for the strike Guidry would almost certainly have won 17 or more games, another season equivalent to a 20 win season in days of the 4-man rotation.

Something tells me HOF voters would find the following record considerably more impressive:

21-9
25-3
20-9
20-11
18-8
15-9
23-10
13-14
23-7

That's a conservative estimate of Guidry's projected records from '77 to '85 if he'd made 35 starts each season rather than averaging a shade less than 30 starts a year as result of a 5-man rotation, the 1981 strike and the Yankees' periodic dubious decisions to shift one of the best starting pitchers in baseball into the bullpen. The foregoing projection is based on an assumption that Guidry would have won a mere 45% and 50% of his incremental starts rather than the 57% win/start ratio he maintained between '77 and '85.

2. The strike-shortened 1981 season. Guidry's 1981 season was by any measure an outstanding season. Guidry led the league with the lowest WHIP, the highest strikeout/bb ratio, was third in strikeouts/inning, fourth in fewest hits/inning and fifth in fewest bb's/inning. He was The Sporting News' lefthanded pitcher on its All-Star team. The 11-5 record, a product of the strike and the Yanks' sensible decision to use Guidry somewhat sparingly in September, simply doesn't reflect Guidry's excellence in '81 and is likely given insufficient regard by HOF voters.

3. Possible 20-win seasons in '79 and '80 lost to bullpen detours. The Yankees decision to pitch Guidry out of the bullpen at the beginning of the '77 season is understandable - Guidry had been a relief pitcher with the Yankees' AAA affiliate in '75 and '76, his slight 5'11", 165 lb. frame considered inadequate to the rigors of starting pitching, particularly given Guidry's fastball/slider, power-pitching style. The decisions by the Yankees in '79 and '80 to shift one of the best starting pitchers in baseball to the bullpen, however, are difficult to understand. In each case Guidry volunteered to make the move, a testament to his sense of teamwork and selflessness. The decision in '79 was a stopgap measure to compensate for Gossage's loss to injury. The decision in '80 was simply bizarre. Gaylord Perry was 6-9 with Texas when the Yanks acquired him in mid-August, albeit with a creditable 3.43 ERA. The decision to make Guidry a long-reliever, however, rather than shifting Perry or the 39-year old Luis Tiant to the role, simply didn't make sense.

Back-to-back 20 win seasons in '79 and '80, coming on the heels of Guidry's magnificent 25-win season in '78, would most certainly have carried significant weight with HOF voters who couldn't muster 10% of the vote for Guidry in his nine years on the ballot. Of the 13 pitchers who've had 5 or more 20-win seasons since WW II all are in the Hall of Fame.