Where the Veterans Committee Gets It Right and the BBWAA Gets It Wrong
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
, Posted by Gator Guy at 9:47 AM
Joe Gordon, Ted Williams, Bobby Doerr and Bill Dickey
The Veterans Committee's selections over the last 30 years fall into two main groups: middle infielders (i.e., catchers, 2nd basemen and shortstops) and players with relatively brief careers or brief primes.
Joe Gordon, the pre-1943 Veterans Committee selection from last year, clearly fits in the "brief career" category. Ron Santo and Tony Oliva, two of the top three votegetters in last year's post-1943 Veterans Committee election, fit squarely into the latter category. Neither had huge career totals but each was considered one of the premier hitters in his league for a period of seven or eight years. Neither had a very long or distinguished career following his prime (in each case about five years).
The following are Hall Famers selected by the Veterans Committee since 1979, in reverse order of induction: Joe Gordon, Bill Mazeroski, Orlando Cepeda, George Davis, Lary Doby, Nellie Fox, Jim Bunning, Richie Ashburn, Vic Willis, Phil Rizzuto, Hal Newhouser, Tony Lazzeri, Red Schoendienst, Bobby Doerr, Ernie Lombardi, Enos Slaughter, Arky Vaughan, Rick Ferrell, Pee Wee Reese, George Kell, Travis Jackson, Johnny Mize, Chuck Klein, Hack Wilson, Addie Joss.
I've italicized the middle-infielders and bolded those who had relatively brief careers or brief primes. A reasonable inference from the foregoing roster of inductees is that the Veterans Committee apparently believes the BBWAA gives short shrift to (i) players who played positions generally considered more defensive in nature and (ii) players who were great for a relatively brief period and consequently did not compile particularly impressive career statistical totals. Of the remaining VC inductees - Bunning, Ashburn and Cepeda - it's pretty clear that the VC felt Ashburn's reputation as a great defensive centerfielder didn't receive sufficient consideration from the BBWAA (making Ashburn an outfield variant of the "middle infielder" phenomenon in VC voting).
Santo and Oliva both suffer from a double whammy of sorts; each were truly premier for a period of only seven to eight years and each had their best years in the '60s, a period of relative pitching dominance, and accordingly their hitting statistics aren't necessarily that impressive when compared to the great hitters of the '30s or '90s. Santo and Oliva are receiving more support from the Veterans Committee than they received from the BBWAA, but not significantly more (both Santo and Oliva topped 40% in BBWAA voting in their best year on the ballot).
This is where the VC gets it right and the BBWAA doesn't: it's about how great a player was at his peak and maintaining that peak for a period of at least five to eight years. It's not about playing a long time and compiling huge career stats. Were Don Sutton and Bert Blyleven better ballplayers than Santo or Oliva, or did they merely hang around long enough to pile up huge win totals? The BBWAA too often focuses on that one line of statistics at the bottom of the baseball card - the career stats. The Veterans Committee appears more capable than the BBWAA of engaging in a nuanced assessment of a player's greatness.
That's a good omen for Ron Guidry, I believe. Nine years as one of the handful of best pitchers in the game ought to be enough. Nine years of compiling a winning percentage of historical proportions - ranking with the Groves, Koufaxes and Madduxes - ought to be enough.
Joe Gordon, the pre-1943 Veterans Committee selection from last year, clearly fits in the "brief career" category. Ron Santo and Tony Oliva, two of the top three votegetters in last year's post-1943 Veterans Committee election, fit squarely into the latter category. Neither had huge career totals but each was considered one of the premier hitters in his league for a period of seven or eight years. Neither had a very long or distinguished career following his prime (in each case about five years).
The following are Hall Famers selected by the Veterans Committee since 1979, in reverse order of induction: Joe Gordon, Bill Mazeroski, Orlando Cepeda, George Davis, Lary Doby, Nellie Fox, Jim Bunning, Richie Ashburn, Vic Willis, Phil Rizzuto, Hal Newhouser, Tony Lazzeri, Red Schoendienst, Bobby Doerr, Ernie Lombardi, Enos Slaughter, Arky Vaughan, Rick Ferrell, Pee Wee Reese, George Kell, Travis Jackson, Johnny Mize, Chuck Klein, Hack Wilson, Addie Joss.
I've italicized the middle-infielders and bolded those who had relatively brief careers or brief primes. A reasonable inference from the foregoing roster of inductees is that the Veterans Committee apparently believes the BBWAA gives short shrift to (i) players who played positions generally considered more defensive in nature and (ii) players who were great for a relatively brief period and consequently did not compile particularly impressive career statistical totals. Of the remaining VC inductees - Bunning, Ashburn and Cepeda - it's pretty clear that the VC felt Ashburn's reputation as a great defensive centerfielder didn't receive sufficient consideration from the BBWAA (making Ashburn an outfield variant of the "middle infielder" phenomenon in VC voting).
In the case of Bunning and Cepeda, neither compiled huge career totals because neither had a particularly long career nor was considered an all-time great for a brief period; both were merely very good for about a decade. I excluded Bunning and Cepeda from the "brief career/brief prime" category because each had a prime of about ten to twelve years, but both plainly had shorter productive careers than most BBWAA inductees to the Hall over the last 30 years.
Santo and Oliva both suffer from a double whammy of sorts; each were truly premier for a period of only seven to eight years and each had their best years in the '60s, a period of relative pitching dominance, and accordingly their hitting statistics aren't necessarily that impressive when compared to the great hitters of the '30s or '90s. Santo and Oliva are receiving more support from the Veterans Committee than they received from the BBWAA, but not significantly more (both Santo and Oliva topped 40% in BBWAA voting in their best year on the ballot).
This is where the VC gets it right and the BBWAA doesn't: it's about how great a player was at his peak and maintaining that peak for a period of at least five to eight years. It's not about playing a long time and compiling huge career stats. Were Don Sutton and Bert Blyleven better ballplayers than Santo or Oliva, or did they merely hang around long enough to pile up huge win totals? The BBWAA too often focuses on that one line of statistics at the bottom of the baseball card - the career stats. The Veterans Committee appears more capable than the BBWAA of engaging in a nuanced assessment of a player's greatness.
That's a good omen for Ron Guidry, I believe. Nine years as one of the handful of best pitchers in the game ought to be enough. Nine years of compiling a winning percentage of historical proportions - ranking with the Groves, Koufaxes and Madduxes - ought to be enough.
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